Watching Libya May 3, 2011 (Update 14:30 CET)

The Libyan state-owned Imdad Medical Company is expected to start operations out of Tunisia this week. Imdad procures all medical supplies for the public health sector. The regime is hoping that this will ensure adequate supplies and to enable Imdad to fulfil the contractual obligations of past tenders, now to be paid through L/Cs opened on Tunisian bank accounts.

Other Libyan owned public sector companies have also transferred the conduct of financial operations to Tunisia, with a view to ensure food supplies to Tripoli. Libya imports most of its food requirements. Observers believe that this stratagem will not prevent a food crisis within 60 days.

Meanwhile, Turkey closed its embassy in Tripoli yesterday (Monday, May 2)  but it will maintain its consulate in Benghazi, where the Transitional National Council is headquartered. Foreign minister Ahmet Davutoglu told the media in Ankara: “In the light of recent changes in the security conditions in Libya and the emergence of potential security risks, we took an important decision last night to temporarily evacuate our embassy in Tripoli.”

This is a very significant development. Observers had been expecting Ankara to maintain a diplomatic presence in Tripoli because, in the course of this crisis, Turkey has consistently sought to maintain a pragmatic stand in relation to Gheddafi's regime. Turkey has very strong business relations with Libya and has taken steps to facilitate these. In 2010, for example, Turkey granted visa exemptions to Libyan citizens for periods of up to three months.

This decision would not have been taken, observers argue, unless Ankara were expecting serious unrest in Tripoli. It would not have been made to score points against the regime or for Turkey to ingratiate itself with other NATO member states. It would only have been made if Turkey had hard intelligence of serious trouble ahead specifically in the Libyan capital. It follows fast on the UN's decision to evacuate its own staff from Tripoli. (About Turkey’s interests in Libya, see Watching Libya March 22, 2011 below).

Only an hour ago, Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan called on Gheddafi to leave power immediately. Gheddafi, he said, had ignored Turkey's advice to stop the bloodshed and to hand over power to a new political leader to resolve the uprising peacefully. “Gheddafi preferred to shed blood instead of heeding our calls,” Erdoğan told the press earlier this afternoon. “We are done talking in Libya. We want him to leave power for a better future for his country.” Erdoğan’s speech indicates a radical shift in Turkey’s attitude to the Libyan crisis. Gheddafi has possibly lost the last bridge to the outside world.

Meanwhile the 12 UN staffers previously based in Tripoli have now been redeployed to Tunisia from where they will continue to support UN humanitarian operations in Western Libya. The UN compound in Tripoli has been broken into and ransacked, and UN vehicles were stolen. No UN personnel are reported to have been hurt. According to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), in excess of 665,000 people have fled Libya so far, of which more than 12,000 from Misratah.

Over the weekend, the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, submitted his first report to the UN Security Council pursuant to resolution 1970 (2011). The report states that "available information provides reasonable grounds to believe that crimes against humanity have been committed and continue being committed in Libya, including murder under Article 7(1)(a) of the Statute; imprisonment or other severe deprivationof physical liberty under Article 7(1)(e) of the Statute; other inhumane acts under Article 7(1)(k) of the Statute; torture under Article 7(1)(f), and persecution under Article 7(1)(h) of the Statute."

physical liberty under Article 7(1)(e) of the Statute; other inhumane acts under Article 7(1)(k) of the Statute; torture under Article 7(1)(f), and persecution under Article 7(1)(h) of the Statute."

It also states that: "There is also relevant information concerning the alleged commission of rape under Article 7(1)(g) of the Statute; deportation or forcible transfer under Article 7(1)(d) of the Statute and war crimes once the situation developed into an armed conflict, including violence to life and person, under Article 8(2)(c)(i); intentionally directing attacks against civilians not taking a direct part in hostilities under Article 8(2)(e)(i); intentionally directing attacks against buildings dedicated to religion, education, art, science or charitable purposes, historic monuments, hospitals and places where the sick and wounded are collected, provided they are not military objectives, under Article 8(2)(e)(iv)."

Regarding investigative policies, the Prosecutor has emphasised that the focus will be on those who bear the greatest responsibility. In this regard, the report states: "In accordance with the Statute the Office consolidated an investigation policy focused on those who bear the greatest responsibility for the most serious crimes, based on the evidence that emerges in the course of an investigation. Thus, the Office will select for prosecution those who bear the highest responsibility, including those who ordered, incited, financed, or otherwise planned the commission of the alleged crimes."

Between March 3, when the investigation started, and April 26, the report's cut-off date, the Office of the Prosecutor conducted 15 missions to 10 states, about 45 interviews were taken or persons screened to be interviewed, and more than 569 documents (including visual material) were obtained.

The report also deals with responsibilities to execute arrest warrants, should the judges decide to issue arrest warrants. Although "the primary responsibility to execute them will lie with the territorial authorities", if these fail or are unable to "perform an arrest, or should the local authorities request international assistance to perform such arrests, the UN Security Council should evaluate how to ensure the implementation of any arrest warrants issued by the International Criminal Court in accordance with UN Security Council Resolution 1970 (2011)."

The Prosecutor informed the UN Security Council that his Office has requested both the regime in Tripoli and the Benghazi-based TNC "to be ready to implement any arrest warrant that the International Criminal Court might decide to issue".  Although Tripoli has yet to reply, the TNC replied April 14 2011 as follows: “We are fully committed to supporting the fast implementation of such arrest warrants and expect the international community to cooperate fully as is required by the Rome Statute of the ICC and in accordance with Security Council Resolution 1970 adopted under Chapter VII of the UN Charter.”

Finally, the report observes that "Security Council Resolution 1970 (2011) stressed the need to hold to account those responsible for attacks, including by forces under their control, on civilians." In this regard, Prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo remarked that it "is indeed a characteristic of the situation in Libya that massive crimes are reportedly committed upon instruction of a few persons who control the organizations that execute the orders. Arresting those who ordered the commission of crimes, should the Judges decide to issue warrants, will contribute to the protection of civilians in Libya."