Watching Libya May 21/22, 2011

US President Barack Obama‘s remarks on the Middle East and North Africa, delivered at the State Department on Thursday, May 19, have not been praised for their innovativeness. Although this regular feature of www.gtmalta.com is mainly concerned with developments on the ground in Libya and the region that are of particular interest to international companies with business interests in the country, President Obama’s speech deserves close attention because it impacts on fundamental strategic concerns for foreign investors in Libya and the region generally.

As the example of Tunisia has shown, the better known global competitiveness rankings have little or nothing to say about social and political stability. Indeed, their conceptual framework (the questions they ask and the criteria they use to benchmark the countries they consider) appear to systematically neglect social (and potentially political) issues.

Obama’s speech begins by recognising the traditional narrowness of US interests in the Middle East and North Africa. “For decades,” he says, “the United States has pursued a set of core interests in the region:  countering terrorism and stopping the spread of nuclear weapons; securing the free flow of commerce and safe-guarding the security of the region; standing up for Israel’s security and pursuing Arab-Israeli peace.”

Without rejecting any of these concerns, the US President acknowledges that a “strategy based solely upon the narrow pursuit of these interests will not fill an empty stomach or allow someone to speak their mind.”  In a candid admission that US security and economic interests have more often than not led to support for regimes whose rulers and their cronies accumulated vast wealth at the expense of their people and suppressed the latter when these dared to protest, Obama warned that without a thoroughgoing change of strategy, the people of the region would become even more alienated from the US than they already are.

Quote: “…failure to speak to the broader aspirations of ordinary people will only feed the suspicion that has festered for years that the United States pursues our interests at their expense.  Given that this mistrust runs both ways –- as Americans have been seared by hostage-taking and violent rhetoric and terrorist attacks that have killed thousands of our citizens -– a failure to change our approach threatens a deepening spiral of division between the United States and the Arab world.”

Some have remarked that Obama had already conceded as much two years ago in Cairo and that, therefore, his May 19 speech contained nothing new. The US President himself, however, points out that the policy change he is promoting is long and complex process. It is a process that began in Cairo and is now continuing in radically different circumstances.

Quote: “…two years ago in Cairo, I began to broaden our engagement based upon mutual interests and mutual respect.  I believed then -– and I believe now -– that we have a stake not just in the stability of nations, but in the self-determination of individuals.  The status quo is not sustainable.  Societies held together by fear and repression may offer the illusion of stability for a time, but they are built upon fault lines that will eventually tear asunder.”

Obama also warns that the process ahead presents opportunities as well as dangers. Quote: “So we face a historic opportunity.  We have the chance to show that America values the dignity of the street vendor in Tunisia more than the raw power of the dictator.  There must be no doubt that the United States of America welcomes change that advances self-determination and opportunity.  Yes, there will be perils that accompany this moment of promise.  But after decades of accepting the world as it is in the region, we have a chance to pursue the world as it should be.”

The message that emerges from his latest speech is one of great realism and of recognition that models of social and political change can neither be exported nor steered remotely from the outside.  Quote: “…we must proceed with a sense of humility.  It’s not America that put people into the streets of Tunis or Cairo -– it was the people themselves who launched these movements, and it’s the people themselves that must ultimately determine their outcome. Not every country will follow our particular form of representative democracy, and there will be times when our short-term interests don’t align perfectly with our long-term vision for the region.”

Obama also addresses situations where the US is faced with requests for action against regimes that violently resist their peoples’ call for change. His reply is quite straightforward. Quote: “…in too many countries, calls for change have thus far been answered by violence.  The most extreme example is Libya, where Muammar Qaddafi launched a war against his own people, promising to hunt them down like rats.  As I said when the United States joined an international coalition to intervene, we cannot prevent every injustice perpetrated by a regime against its people, and we have learned from our experience in Iraq just how costly and difficult it is to try to impose regime change by force -– no matter how well-intentioned it may be.”

“But in Libya, we saw the prospect of imminent massacre, we had a mandate for action, and heard the Libyan people’s call for help.  Had we not acted along with our NATO allies and regional coalition partners, thousands would have been killed.  The message would have been clear:  Keep power by killing as many people as it takes.  Now, time is working against Qaddafi (*). He does not have control over his country.  The opposition has organized a legitimate and credible Interim Council.  And when Qaddafi inevitably leaves or is forced from power, decades of provocation will come to an end, and the transition to a democratic Libya can proceed.” Read the full transcript of the speech.