Watching Libya May 1/2, 2011

In his 80 minute televised speech in the early hours of Saturday morning Gheddafi combined threatening and conciliatory language.  He called for a ceasefire but made it clear that he will never leave his country and that nobody can force him to leave.

He repeated his now well known rhetorical argument:  "I don't have any function or post. If I were a president, my fate would be like that of the presidents of Tunisia and Egypt".  He denounced violence between Libyan ‘brothers’ but gave the people of Misratah an ultimatum: give up by May 5 or else… . He invited NATO to cease fire but threatened Italy.

Immediately after his speech, the building that houses Libyan state TV, on the old coastal road (El Sha’ab), adjacent to the Italian ambassador's residence overlooking Tripoli port, was hit and a specific structure within the complex was damaged. It was, for all effects and purposes, the Coalition’s answer to Gheddafi’s speech, echoing the TNC’s own dismissal of his contradictory gestures.

NATO’s Saturday night raids had immediate international resonance because they reportedly targeted Gheddafi himself.  Libyan state TV claimed that the attack killed his son, Sejf Al-Arab, and three of his grandchildren. The latter were reported by the same source to have been with Gheddafi and his wife.

There is widespread scepticism in Libya regarding the death of Sejf Al-Arab, not to be confused with Sejf al-Islam. The regime, however, claimed that NATO has breached its mandate by deliberately targeting Gaddafi because the building concerned, they also claim, is one of Gheddafi’s villas.  This could work well amongst his supporters because it portrays him as one has suffered as much as them from the attacks of the ‘Crusaders’.

Externally, it promotes domestic opposition to military intervention in Libya in the countries of the Coalition. It has also triggered further statements against coalition strikes by China, Russia, and Venezuela. I may also lead to reduced levels of coalition action especially in and around Tripoli.

NATO, meanwhile, claims that it had targeted a command and control centre in the Gharghour neighbourhood. Gharghour is an up-market residential area. It is comprised mainly of the spacious, mostly single-story homes, of families of high-ranking military officers.

Gharghour is adjacent to the Bab Al-Aziziya compound, the 6 square kilometre military barracks in the southern suburbs of Tripoli, strategically located on a highway leading to Tripoli International Airport and downtown.

The embassies of Italy, France, Switzerland and Britain in Tripoli were ransacked in retaliation for the air strikes. Britain reacted by expelling the Libyan ambassador.  This may lead to a faster decision by Britain to recognise the TNC as Libya’s sole interlocutor.

It is understood that the regime is wary of encouraging public demonstrations against foreign embassies, for fear that opposition groups could take advantage of the ensuing confusion in the streets to protest against the regime. It may be that this is the ‘unrest’ referred to in order to justify the evacuation by the United Nations’ of its staff in Tripoli.

Meanwhile fighting in the weekend in the Jabal Nafusa intensified, spilling over into Tunisia as Gheddafi’s forces persevered in their attempt to take back the Wazin(Libya)/Dheiba(Tunisia) border crossing. About twelve of their vehicles trespassed the frontier on Friday, as they took the fight to the rebels who had sought refuge in Dheiba. 

Considering that one Tunisian citizen was killed the process and that this was the third time that the Libyan regime’s forces entered Tunisian territory, the Tunisian response was somewhat muted. They summoned Gheddafi’s ambassador and warned that any further incidents would bring about retaliation.

This did not stop the regime’s forces from firing around 30 artillery rounds into Tunisia on Sunday (May 1) evening. As a result Tunisia sealed the Wazin/Dheiba border crossing, which is quite possibly what Gheddafi’s troops wanted in the first place. Supplies to opposition partisans in the Nafusa mountains will now have to be smuggled by longer and more devious routes. For background read Watching Libya April 29, 2011 below.