Watching Libya March 4, 2011

Why are we to expect fiercer fighting to secure Ras Lanouf?  650 km east of Tripoli, this port town on the Gulf of Sirte is home to the most important of Libya’s five domestic refineries. With a crude oil refining capacity of 220,000 barrels a day (b/d), the Ras Lanouf export refinery, completed in 1984, accounts for over 58 per cent of Libya’s combined crude processing capacity.

According to Oil and Gas Journal (OGJ), the other four refineries are – in order of capacity – the Az-Zawiya refinery in north western Libya (120,000 b/d), Tobruk (20,000 b/d), the Sarir topping facility (10,000 b/d) and Brega, the oldest and smallest (8,000 b/d).

Ras Lanouf is controlled by forces loyal to Gheddafi but the opposition is resolved to hold on to Marsa el Brega, only about 70 km to the east. Brega – 247 km driving distance to Benghazi, the seat of the insurgents’ National Council – is the most advanced position along the coastline of the apparently opposition controlled north eastern region, traditionally known as the Cyrenaica. Latest reports indicate that both loyalists and the insurgents will fight tooth and nail to keep Ras Lanouf and Brega respectively and are preparing to dislodge each other.

If it is the case that Az-Zawiya in north western Libya and a mere 40 km west of Tripoli in the direction of the Tunisian border, is in the hands of the opposition, then the Gheddafi regime cannot afford to lose Ras Lanouf in the east. If it does, it will have lost the last of the country’s two most important oil refineries. Az-Zawiya, with a population of around 150,000 and home to a university, is the administrative centre of the Az-Zawiya district. Yesterday, AP reported that according to local informers, Az-Zawiya residents were preparing for an attack from Gheddafi loyalists.

As at this morning, there were no reports of any opposition gains to the west of Az-Zawiya. The last reports of anti-Gheddafi protests along the short stretch between Az-Zawiya and Tripoli, date back to last Friday  (February 25) early afternoon when, according to Reuters, hundreds of protesters at the Slatnah Mosque in the Shargia district of Janzour chanted slogans in solidarity with the insurgents in Benghazi. There have been unconfirmed reports of two dead when government forces shot at the crowd.

It is not clear which, if any, of the towns to the east of Az-Zawiya to the Tunisian border are held by the rebels. An unvetted CNN clip uploaded 48 hours ago suggests that Zuwarah may have fallen to the opposition. Sabratha and Melitah appear to be under government control. The processing facility at Melitah, between Sabratha and Zuwarah, would under normal circumstances be exporting 280 Bcf a year of natural gas via Greenstream to south eastern Sicily.