Watching Libya March 2, 2011

As we write this, the US is deploying military assets in the region. Although US secretary of state Hillary Clinton insisted at Monday’s UN meeting in Geneva that this did not signal pending military action, she also said that “nothing is off the table”.

Plans for a military no-fly zone appear to have been shifted to the back-burner. Earlier this week, UK officials were reported to have indicated Akrotiri air base in Cyprus as the platform for the deployment of aircraft to enforce such a no-fly zone over Libya. Presumably the Sigonella facilities in Sicily would also be available, as well as Sixth Fleet aircraft carriers. This means that, in the event the no-fly zone plan is revived, Malta need not be placed in an embarrassing position because of its constitutional neutrality.

Malta, the smallest EU member state and the one physically closest to Libya, has earned it the admiration and gratitude of the international community because of its logistical and humanitarian role in operations to evacuate expatriates working in Libya. The US, China and the UK, amongst others, have all used Malta as a logistical base to bring their citizens out of Libya.

Meanwhile, according to the latest data by the International Energy Agency (IEA), about half of Libya's crude oil output of 1.6 million barrels per day has been cut. Libya, a member of the oil cartel OPEC and  the world's 12th largest oil exporter, sells most of its oil to Europe. Around 10 percent of European oil imports originate in Libya. Italy is the biggest importer, with 376,000 b/d in 2010.

Shukri Ghanem, chairman of the state National Oil Company and a former reformist prime minister, is reported by AP to have said yesterday that the Libya’s crude production had been cut by around 50 percent, or about 800,000 barrels a day.

Ghanem – who, although critical of the government, was retained in his highly sensitive post because of his professional competence – is being mentioned as a possible component of the future national leadership. Internationally respected, he has the support of the local professional and business community.

Meanwhile, a Tobruk based opposition spokesman is reported by AFP to have claimed 48 hours ago that one company was resuming oil exports from stocks and had loaded a tanker with one million barrels of crude for China. If this is the case, it would be the first cargo of crude to sail from Libya since February 19.