Watching Libya March 11, 2011

As we upload this brief, reports are coming in that Ras Lanouf may have fallen to Gheddafi forces although the opposition insists that it is still fighting on. In any case, the overwhelmingly superior firepower and organisation of the armed forces loyal to Gheddafi are taking their toll on the rebels. Their unchallenged mastery of the sky is, as expected, proving to be decisive. More shells or rockets have fallen on Ras Lanouf’s oil installations.

Ras Lanouf is home to Libya’s most important export crude refinery (see Watching Libya March 4, 2011 below). Retaking Ras Lanouf is of vital importance for the regime. Oil from the the oil fields in the Sirte Basin (see our map), Libya’s main oil producing area, are refined and exported mainly through Ras Lanouf.

Libya holds the largest proven oil reserves in Africa, followed by Nigeria and Algeria. As at January 2011, Libya had total proven oil reserves of 46.4 billion barrels (Oil and Gas Journal). About 80 percent of these are located in the Sirte basin.

In 2010 crude oil production was around1.65 million barrels per day (bbl/d). About two-thirds of Libyan oil production comes from the Sirte Basin. Most of the balance comes from the Murzuq basin in the deep south of the country (see Watching Libya March 9, 2011 below) and from offshore near Tripoli.

Production reached its highest in the late 1960s with peaks in excess of 3 million bbl/d.  The National Oil Corporation (NOC) is aiming to get back to those levels in 2017.

Exports totalled 1.5 million bbl/d. About 85 per cent of exports go to Italy, Germany, France and Spain. The US imported an average of 117,000 bbl/d in 2007 (the highest in the last 3 years). In January-November 2010, the US imported 71,000 bbl/d. Libya itself consumed around  270,000 bbl/d in 2010. (International Energy Agency IEA and US EIA Briefs)

The NOC is the Libyan government’s agency responsible for implementing Exploration and Production Sharing Agreements (EPSA) with international oil companies, for oilfield development and for downstream activities. International companies operating in Libya include BP, ConocoPhillips, Eni, ExxonMobil, Hess, Marathon, Occidental, OMV, Repsol YPF, Shell, StatoilHydro and Total.

Meawnhile, AFP has just reported that production has resumed at the Zawiyah refinery. This installation, which supplies Tripoli and its hinterland, had been shut for three days by NOC because of the fierce fighting in this town. Yesterday ITN and The Times correspondents succeeded to enter this strategically important town only a short drive away west of Tripoli (see Watching Libya March 5/6, 2011 below). They reported scenes of carnage, widespread destruction, freshly dug graves and what has been described as evidence that Zawiyah had been bombed by heavy artillery.

Background to Libya’s oil geography:

Marlan W. Downey, William Andrew Morgan, Jack C. Threet. Petroleum provinces of the twenty-first century (American Association of Petroleum Geologists: Memoir Vol. 74) 2001

Don Hallett. Petroleum: Geography of Libya 2002

Ezzat Tawadros. Geology of Egypt and Libya 2001