Watching Libya April 9/10, 2011

As fierce fighting continues in Ajdabiya (see our map below), and Misratah and elsewhere in Libya, a high level African Union delegation made up of presidents Jacob Zuma of South Africa, Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz of Mauritania, Amadou Toumani Toure of Mali and Denis Sassou Nguesso of the Republic of Congo, along with Uganda's Foreign Minister Henry Oryem Okello are or will soon all be in Libya today to meet first with Muammar Gheddafi in Tripoli and then with the Transitional National Council (TNC) in Benghazi in an attempt to secure an immediate ceasefire, dialogue between the warring sides and conditions that make humanitarian aid possible.

Last week, the office of the South African president issued a statement to clarify its position on Libya. Here is an excerpt: "South Africa’s position on Libya is clear and unambiguous. As a member of the African Union, South Africa is committed to the position of the African Union Peace and Security Council which reaffirmed Africa’s strong commitment to the respect of the unity and territorial integrity of Libya."

"President Jacob Zuma has called for an immediate ceasefire in Libya and an end to the attacks on civilians. He also stated that only a peaceful solution, based on the will of the people, will guarantee long-term stability in Libya.  The President is part of the Ad-hoc High‐Level Committee on Libya, comprising five Heads of State and Government, who have been tasked with finding a political solution to the Libyan crisis. South Africa remains committed to working within the ambit of the AU to find a lasting political solution to the Libyan crisis."

"Other than responsibilities as a member of the African Union, South Africa also has strong historical ties with Libya forged during the liberation struggle.  It is for this reason that we stated that Resolution 1973 should not be abused, and should be implemented in letter and spirit to protect Libyan civilians and not to advance other objectives.  President Zuma has spoken out unambiguously against the killing of civilians in Libya and reaffirmed the country’s rejection of regime change and the foreign occupation of Libya." Click here.

Another statement yesterday further clarified South Africa's position. here is an extract: "The media has made reference to reports on Libyan television about some remarks which are apparently attributed to President Jacob Zuma relating to Libya. President Zuma has spoken out clearly on the Libyan question. South Africa has openly condemned the loss of life and attacks on civilians and reported violations of human rights in Libya. The country supports the positions taken by the African Union and the United Nations on Libya and there has never been any ambiguity about the position of either President Zuma or the country." Click here.

The African Union proposal is not likely to meet with more success than Turkey's proposal last week involving a withdrawal by Muammar Gheddafi's forces from cities held by the rebels, and democratic reform. The Turkish plan was based on three elements: 1) a ceasefire in towns besieged by Gheddafi's forces, including Misratah, 2) a humanitarian corridor to allow delivery of humanitarian aid to enter, and 3) negotiations leading to a new political process, including free elections. Observers argue that any proposal not involving the exit of the Gheddafi family is unlikely to be accepted by the opposition. Similarly a mediation offer by Venezuela's Hugho Chavez - albeit less credible than either that of the African Union and Turkey - was dismissed by the Libyan opposition.

B. Lynn Pascoe, UN Under Secretary Feneral for political affairs and Abdelilah Al-Khatib, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon's special envoy for Libya, will represent the United Nations at the first meeting of the Libya Contact Group in Doha, Qatar, on Wednesday (March 13). The meeting will also be attended by representatives of the UN Development Program (UNDP) and the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. The Contact Group was set up on March 31 at the London conference on Libya.

Meanwhile Mustafa Abdul Jalil, chairman of Libya's rebel Transitional National Council (TNC), will be visiting Rome on Tuesday (April 12).  Italy is Libya’s top economic partner. Libya is Italy’s primary supplier of oil, and third most important supplier of natural gas. Italy exports to Libya include refined oil products and machinery. In 2009, trade between the two countries stood at €11 billion but was higher in 2008 when it had reached  €20.3 billion.