Watching Libya

As the June elections draw nearer, the Interim Government led by prime minister Prof. Abdurrahim El-Keib (about him see Watching Libya October 31, 2011) is bearing the brunt of popular discontent. The Transitional National Council (TNC) – the body that elected El-Keib and the other members of the government – is signalling that it is itself not satisfied with the performance of the beleaguered executive.

The TNC – whose own political legitimation is derived from its leadership of the successful struggle against the regime – could, in theory, dissolve the government. This would require a vote of two thirds plus one of its members. It is very unlikely, however, that the TNC would go this far. It would exacerbate the present sense of instability in the country, and this is one of the main sources of discontent.

The Libyan street is mainly concerned with the government’s apparent failure to come to grips with security. They want to see the army reactivated and the various militias to be either disbanded or brought together as a legitimate and regular force under one command. Tribal clashes in the far south at Kufra and Sabha  but also on the coast at Zuwara only 120 km west of Tripoli, are a reminder that the security issue is top priority.

Libyans are also concerned with other issues. Most Libyans do not want their country to take the federal path with a Western Libya with Tripoli as capital and an Eastern region governed from Benghazi or a three-state federal Libya modelled on the 1951 constitution. They are even less ready to contemplate any part of Libya seceding and going its own way. Hence the widespread anger at the initiatives of the Benghazi based federalist movement.

They are aware, however, that unless the government is able to assert itself as the country’s sole and unchallenged executive authority, a minority will advocate federalism as a solution to the present problems. Many argue that a truly national army obedient to a democratically elected government and intolerant of tribal factionalism is the surest guarantee of a stable and united Libya. Hence, also, the importance of not postponing the June elections.